Semifinal predictions: Don't bet against Arsenal despite misfiring attack

The team with the best attack in the world (Bayern Munich) against the team with the best possession game and second-best attack in the world (Paris Saint-Germain). The team with the best defense in the world (Arsenal) against maybe the best defensive team of the last decade (Atlético Madrid). You can't say the soccer gods didn't give us two thematically perfect UEFA Champions League semifinal matchups.

The quarterfinals mostly lived up to expectations, with three of four ties going down to the wire. The best current matchup in the sport (Barcelona-Atletico Madrid) was as wild as hoped, and the most played matchup in the history of the competition (Bayern-Real Madrid) was even wilder. And now we have our semifinalists. Arsenal and Bayern have been the best overall teams since the start of the season, PSG looks like the hottest team, and Diego Simeone's Atletico have won in two of their three previous semifinal appearances.

Let's take a look at two tantalizing semifinal matchups.

- UCL Talking Points: What was Slot thinking? Are Bayern favorites now?
- Olley: While other giants fire, Arsenal continue to flicker
- Lindop: PSG show Liverpool that it takes more than star power to shine

BAYERN MUNICH vs. PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

First leg: April 28 | Second leg: May 6

Bayern and PSG are getting awfully used to each other. They've already faced each other twice in the past nine months -- PSG won in the Club World Cup, Bayern in the Champions League league phase -- and this tie will give them their 11th and 12th meetings of the last decade. Bayern ran out winners in seven of the last 10 games, but PSG have a title to defend, and if the last round is any indication, their defense is a bit more sound at the moment.

Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 1 Bayern (60.6%), No. 4 PSG (39.4%)

How Bayern advanced: They invited Real Madrid to a track meet (and narrowly won it). There are lots of ways to defend a one-goal advantage, but most teams tend to play with some semblance of caution -- not necessarily parking the bus, as 90 minutes is a long time to do that. Oh, and at a bare minimum, they keep the numbers more balanced between offense and defense.

Bayern, on the other hand, did things like this virtually all night.

Courtesy of Paramount+

That's seven Bayern players pressing in the attacking third as Real Madrid -- a team featuring Kylian Mbappé, maybe the scariest attacker in the world in space, and Vinícius Júnior, the 2024 Ballon d'Or runner up -- attempted to build play from the back. Instead of forcing Real Madrid to create a goal in crowded areas after taking a 2-1 lead home from last week's match in Madrid, Vincent Kompany wanted Bayern to play to their strength, pinning Real Madrid at the wrong end of the pitch and wagering that this high-wire act would create as many goals as it allowed.

He was right. Eventually. Real Madrid scored three times -- Arda Güler pounced on a misplaced Manuel Neuer pass and first-timed it into the net from long range just 35 seconds into the match, then bent in a nasty free kick in the 29th minute, and that Mbappe guy found acres of space on a breakaway late in the first half. But goals from Aleksandar Pavlovic and Harry Kane kept things tied up overall, and a stalemate broke out in the second half as both teams failed to convert solid opportunities.

When Eduardo Camavinga picked up a terribly foolish second yellow card in the 86th minute, however, the tide officially turned toward the home team. Luis Díaz fired in a deflected goal, and Michael Olise officially put things away on the final kick of the match.

Bayern's high risk was eventually (and narrowly) rewarded, and after a nine-match winless run, they scored their first wins over Real Madrid since 2012. Now comes an even stiffer test against the defending champions.

How PSG advanced: With control, then with poise. PSG's cumulative 4-0 win over Liverpool was both comprehensive and formulaic. First, in Paris, they took complete control of the tie by dominating the ball (74% possession), pinning Liverpool deep and attempting 18 shots to the visitors' three on the way to a 2-0 win.

The scoring margin left the door slightly ajar for an Anfield miracle, but in Tuesday's match in Liverpool, they absorbed pressure, giving Liverpool more of the ball (52% possession) while blocking one-third of Liverpool's shots and avoiding too much danger. And just as Liverpool grew increasingly confident and a little too ball-dominant, PSG counter-punched, securing the win with a lovely Ousmane Dembélé goal. (He then added another one for symmetry.)

Dembele and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia were otherworldly against Liverpool. Dembele scored twice, created seven chances for teammates and completed 17 progressive passes, second on the team behind über-progressor Vitinha; Kvaratskhelia, meanwhile, scored once, drew eight fouls (most on the team), won 13 ground duels (tied for first with João Neves) and made 18 progressive carries (tied for first with Vitinha and Achraf Hakimi). PSG's midfield -- Vitinha, Neves and an increasingly brilliant Warren Zaïre-Emery -- overran Liverpool's, and while Liverpool's own attack was wasteful (they failed to score even once from shots worth 2.1 xG), PSG's wasted nothing.

After sleepwalking through much of the season, PSG are dropping plenty of hints that they have found their top gear just in time to rack up a couple more huge trophies.

Why Bayern will win: They can't stop scoring. Last weekend, Bayern set the Bundesliga goals record with their 105th of the season. That makes sense when you first hear it -- it's Bayern, after all -- but think about it for a second. They've now outscored all sorts of other ridiculously prolific Bayern teams ... and they broke the record with five matches left in the league season. Holy smokes!

In 46 matches in all competitions, Bayern have scored 157 goals at a rate of 3.4 per match. They've scored at least five goals in 10 matches. They've scored 16 in four knockout round matches. Olise has 18 goals and 25 assists, Diaz has 24 and 15 respectively, and in just over 2,000 minutes, Serge Gnabry has pitched in 10 and 12. And somehow there have been enough scoring opportunities left over for Kane* to score 50 goals with six more assists. Lennart Karl has nine more goals! Nicolas Jackson has eight! This might be the best attack the sport has ever seen, and Jamal Musiala (four goals and four assists in 588 minutes) hasn't even contributed much since returning from his summer ankle injury (suffered against PSG).

(*Based on Opta odds, there's currently a 16% chance that Kane wins the Champions League while Tottenham Hotspur, his former team, gets relegated. I have no overriding point to share here: I just find that amazing. Sorry for the stray, Spurs fans.)

Of course, now they have to stop PSG from scoring, too. Maybe the most important player on the entire team has been center back Dayot Upamecano, without whom Real Madrid might have scored about 20 more goals. Isolated so frequently against Mbappe and Vini Junior, he led the team with eight quarterfinal tackles (seven in the defensive third) and six interceptions among 31 total defensive interventions. He also won eight of 11 ground duels and made 38 combined progressive carries and passes. And he assisted Kane's goal Wednesday. He was almost superhuman, and he might have to be even better against Dembele, Kvaratskhelia & Co.

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Burley: Liverpool didn't get embarrassed by PSG

Steve Nicol and Craig Burley react to Liverpool's Champions League exit vs. PSG.

Why PSG will win: They're the best possession team left in the tournament. The first two-thirds of this season were like one giant experiment for Luis Enrique and PSG. Due both to injuries and the simple need to keep a large squad properly engaged, Enrique kept his lineup constantly shuffled, and their results suffered a bit because of it. They finished just 11th in the Champions League league phase, and until recently they were unable to separate from a sprightly Lens team in Ligue 1 play. (They're now up four points with a game in hand.) But we know PSG's upside; they were always a danger to shift into gear when the matches really began to count.

In PSG's past six matches, including two each against Liverpool and the Chelsea team that walloped them in last summer's FIFA Club World Cup final, they've won all six by a combined score of 19-3. Chelsea came out swinging, but buckled quickly and lost by a combined 8-2 in the Champions league round of 16; Liverpool bunkered in and contained PSG's attack better, but couldn't generate anything in attack until the last 45 minutes of the tie and couldn't convert the chances they created.

Even with all the early shuffling, PSG's possession stats are the best in the tournament. They're first by far in possession rate (66.3%), first in pass completion rate in the attacking third (90.3%) and second in buildup attacks* per game (6.3), and they're even better at disrupting opponents' buildup play: They've allowed the fewest average passes per defensive action (PPDA) at 8.4, and they're first in progressive carries allowed (37.5), second in buildup attacks allowed (1.2 per game) and first in goals scored from high turnovers (1.1 per game). Bayern dominated PSG in a 2-1 decision back in November, but they didn't dominate this PSG.

(*Buildup attacks: open-play sequences that feature at least 10 passes and produce either a shot or a touch in the opposition's box.)

Prediction: PSG 4, Bayern 3. This one's tough, as I would choose either to win in the final with their current form. But even with Upamecano's heroics, I trust PSG's defense slightly more at the moment. With the second leg in Munich, PSG will face pressure to get up early, but they're more than capable.

ARSENAL vs. ATLETICO MADRID

First leg: April 29 | Second leg: May 5

This is a head versus gut matchup. The head says Arsenal have been the most consistently excellent team in Europe all season. They've given up just 38 goals in 54 matches in all competitions. They lead the Premier League by six points (though second-place Manchester City has a game in hand), and they've outscored opponents 27-5 in 12 unbeaten Champions League matches. They're battling through a finishing funk at the moment, but their underlying numbers remain strong. They've beaten many teams better than Atletico Madrid this season. And they pummeled Atleti, 4-0, last October.

The gut, however, says that Arsenal are wobbly, and Diego Simeone was born to win a matchup like this.

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Marcotti: Atletico 'awkward' opponent for Arsenal

Gabriele Marcotti says Atletico could do "something special" in the Champions League and will be a challenging match-up for Arsenal.

Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 2 Arsenal (74.9%), No. 12 Atletico Madrid (25.1%)

How Arsenal advanced: How else? With masterful defense. Arsenal obviously have a bit of an attacking problem at the moment. In their past five matches in all competitions, they've scored just three goals while being outscored 6-2 in open play. And over the last eight matches, they've turned shots worth 12.9 xG into only eight goals. Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Jesus in that span: two goals from 5.3 xG. Meanwhile, Eberechi Eze and Martin Odegaard, important creators, have both battled recent injuries, and one of the actually solid finishers, Viktor Gyokores, has averaged only 2.1 shots per 90 minutes, a destitute average for a center forward.

They can still defend, though. In 180 minutes, Sporting attempted just 19 shots worth 1.0 combined xG and put none of them in the net. João Simões nearly poked one past David Raya in the dying seconds of Wednesday's 0-0 draw, but at 0.07 xG, from 17 meters out, it was Sporting's most high-quality shot of the match.

This shot map is an absolute master class on Arsenal's part ... at least as long as you only look at the right half of it.

Indeed, Arsenal have now allowed only five goals in 12 Champions League matches, a ridiculous total. But their next opponent has Julián Álvarez and lots of confidence.

How Atletico advanced: Finishing and red cards. The most entertaining current rivalry in the sport delivered once again. Ten matchups between Barca's Hansi Flick and Atletico's Diego Simeone have seen five Barca wins, four Atleti wins and one draw. We've seen scores of 4-4, 4-2, 3-1, 4-0 and 3-0 -- the 4-4 came in last year's Copa del Rey and honestly might be my favorite draw of all time -- and in two different home-and-away knockout ties in the last two months, we've seen Barcelona nearly come back from four down in one and two down in the other.

Atletico held them off once again. Following last week's 2-0 win in Barcelona, Simeone's squad watched Barcelona quickly tie things up on Tuesday with goals from the ever-dominant Lamine Yamal (fourth minute) and Ferran Torres (24th minute), but Ademola Lookman finished a perfect counterattack soon after, and Atletico made the lead hold up.

Both teams wasted solid scoring chances Tuesday, but overall, Atletico were far more efficient in the finishing department. Over the two legs, Barca attempted 33 shots worth 3.4 xG but scored only twice, while Atletico attempted 20 shots worth 2.1 xG and put three of them in the net. Their counterattacks produced both dangerous chances and two red cards -- Barca's Pau Cubarsí was sent off in the first match, and Eric García in the second, both for denial of goal scoring opportunities on counters -- and it was all just enough to survive 180 minutes against Spain's best overall team.

Why Arsenal will win: If you can't score, they don't have to. Arsenal now have 13 days to find their legs -- they looked exhausted on Wednesday -- and rediscover their finishing form. That could be tricky considering they have their biggest Premier League match of the season, at Manchester City, this coming Sunday. With a win or draw, their league title odds will be back in the "nearly certain" range, but with a loss, the alarm bells will be deafening when they leave for Madrid.

But again, they have the best defense in the world. Their 0.4 Champions League goals allowed per match are less than half of what anyone else has allowed, and they're both sixth out of 32 teams in shots allowed per possession (0.09) and a distant first in xG allowed per shot (0.07). They've blocked 32.3% of opponents' shots (by far the most of any semifinalist), and for all of their current finishing issues, their possession game still assures that you have to work the length of the pitch against them: Opponents have started their possessions an average of only 31.3 meters per goal, fifth overall, and second to Bayern among semifinalists. If you attempt to bypass buildup play and hoof it long, they win by far the most aerial duels (55.1%) as well.

If Atletico can't score, then all they have to do is score once in 180 (or 210) minutes -- as they did against Sporting -- to advance.

Why Atletico will win: They convert their chances. Sporting acquitted themselves well against Arsenal, but despite Diego Simeone's profligate defensive past, Atletico have an infinitely tougher, and hotter, attack.

They have finishers, too. Over the course of 14 Champions League matches this season, Atleti have turned shots worth 25.1 xG into 34 goals. That's a 35% overachievement rate, and while that is unsustainable over the long haul, they've overachieved their xG figures by 14% in this season's other competitions, too. Julian Alvarez, Ademola Lookman and Alexander Sorloth are good finishers under any circumstances, and in the Champions League knockout rounds, they've turned shots worth 6.8 xG into 11 goals. Atleti's current run of finishing form couldn't be more different than that of their next opponents.

Atletico have proved capable of earning opportunities in a variety of ways. It goes without saying that a Simeone team can counterattack well, but Alvarez scored on an absurdly pretty free kick in the first leg of the quarterfinals, and no semifinalist -- not even Set Piece FC -- is more dangerous on corner kicks: They've scored on 10.4% of their corners in the Champions League, third overall (behind lower-sample-size Pafos and Club Brugge) and far more than Bayern (5.7%), PSG (5.0%) or Arsenal (4.4%). They vary their strategies on corners to great effect, too: Whereas 54% of Champions League corners have been inswinging and 25% have been outswinging, Atleti's percentages are 32% and 48%, respectively.

Atletico have been outliers in terms of both corner strategy and corner effectiveness. If that continues -- against Europe's perceived set piece masters, no less -- they could easily turn their fourth Champions League semifinal appearance into their third final. (And thanks to Bayern, Real Madrid, the team that has beaten Atletico in every semifinal or final appearance under Simeone, is out.)

Prediction: Arsenal 2, Atletico 1. In two weeks, depending on how their upcoming matches against Manchester City and Newcastle go, Arsenal could be fully focused on locking down a Premier League-Champions League double, and they could be facing a five-alarm fire and praying to grab even a single trophy. The short-term trends aren't positive, but trends end and in the long term, no one has been better this season.